Obama will fix it

Perceptions on America’s new president in the Arab world

For many in Egypt and across the world, the new American President Barack Obama gives America’s image abroad a new lease on life—a new face, a new administration, and finally an opportunity to escape the catastrophic presidency of George W. Bush. However, the almost unqualified optimism, implying Obama will be able to fix everything from the global financial crisis, the protracted crisis in the Middle East and even the traffic in Cairo (the “Obama will fix it” mentality), is contrasted by the stark pessimism of “business as usual.”

Traffic in Cairo is a mixture between absolute mayhem and barely ordered chaos, either completely gridlocked or swerving among pedestrians at stomach-lurching speeds. The cause? Overcrowded, slow and limited public transportation, too many taxis, and highway construction composed of superhighways and resembling a giant bowl of spaghetti. The solution? “Obama will fix it.”

“Obama will fix it”

Obama ran his campaign on the slogan of “change,” and it is this promise which is so tantalizing both for Americans and Egyptians. For the Egyptians, and perhaps for Arabs and the world at large, Obama possesses several characteristics guaranteeing his success: in addition to his eloquent personal narrative and his call for “mutual respect” towards Muslims, Obama has the crucial qualification of simply not being former President Bush. As an added bonus, Obama has the important characteristics both of being black and having a middle name of Hussein, reminiscent of his father’s Muslim origins, and evidence he is not Just Another White President. The popular hope in the Arab world is that Obama will take the Middle East more seriously and more pragmatically, and use America’s considerable power and influence to evoke lasting change, or even more basically, to just stop making things worse. What Obama more broadly represents is also what many Arabs long for and are unable to achieve: peaceful and democratic regime change, the removal of an unpopular president and his replacement by a man with diverse and minority origins. This is the last vestige of the “American dream” where anything is possible, representing a testament to American vitality, a rejection of Bush’s policies and a willingness to break barriers and new ground.

“Business as usual”

On the other side of the coin, many Arabs see Obama’s administration (like any kind of traffic jam) as just a lot of horn honking and not a lot of forward progress. Just as it’s ridiculous to expect President Obama to fix the traffic problem in Cairo—anyone who has tried to get through Midan Ramses in rush hour will tell you that’s as close to impossible as it gets—many Arabs don’t expect the US foreign policy towards the Middle East to change significantly. Black skin and a Muslim middle name are insufficient qualifications for sensible foreign policy, and slogans of “change” are seen as just more rhetoric. The Egyptian daily Al-Ahram cautioned against undue enthusiasm: "We know the kind of pressure the Jewish lobby puts on the presidents in the United States and the degree of influence this minority exercises daily in the departments and organs of political decision-making," wrote Atef al-Gamry in an editorial.

According to this view, America, a constant and staunch ally of Israel, will continue in Bush’s footsteps, likely invade Iran and basically make a mess of the whole thing as his predecessor has done. More nuanced pessimists see little tangible change in Middle East policy, a likely repetition of anti-Arab rhetoric, continued support of Israel and an inability to see beyond the limited borders of American invested interest and knee-jerk anti-Islamism. Even a more charitable version suggests President Obama will be too busy mopping up the mess of the American domestic economy, the health care system, the financial system, the social security system, the housing markets, and whatever else has recently gone wrong domestically to be able to do much about Palestine, Iran, or anything else.

Bridging the gap

Egyptian and Arab intellectuals, while generally receptive of and positive towards Obama, have also clarified concrete expectations (some realistic, others not). Foremost on the agenda is a resolution of the Gaza crisis. In the “Obama will fix it” mentality, the new American president is expected to happily resolve a protracted conflict continuing for over fifty years, against whose bulwark previous onslaughts of American diplomacy from Kissinger to Clinton have tried their strength and failed. From the Arab perspective, any viable change in Middle East policy has to include a legitimate recognition of Arab grievances and concerns, and evidence a good-faith effort to take Arab concerns seriously, instead of the perceived blind alliance to Israel. Though pressure has been mounting on Obama to condemn Israel for its invasion of the Gaza Strip, the fact that he has not done so is seen by many as a continuation of previous unequivocal support for Israel. Given the exceptionally complicated and emotionally charged nature of the current conflict over Gaza, the ever-widening split among the Palestinian factions and its reflection among Arab and Islamic states, a solution will not come easily. But a clear break from “business as usual” can provide enough of an impetus to get the process started. Encouraging Arab states—several of whom are also allies of the US—to engage proactively in the peace process, ensuring good-faith consideration of Palestinian grievances and concerns and evidence that Israel’s alliance with the US runs both ways are as much of a “fix” as President Obama will likely be able to provide. Nevertheless, the continuing goodwill and optimism of the Arab public is contingent on President Obama’s initial actions towards the Middle East.

Already he seems to be on the right track. Obama’s first day in office was marked by a flurry of phone calls to leaders all across the Middle East (just imagine the size of his phone bill!), starting with Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas and including the leaders of Egypt, Israel and Jordan, reaffirming his “commitment to active engagement in pursuit of Arab-Israeli peace from the beginning of his term.” Additionally, a willingness to engage Iran as well as the emphasis on a “responsible” withdrawal from Iraq are two large steps in the right direction. Lastly, the appointment of George Mitchell as special envoy to the Middle East, a diplomatic heavyweight seen as neither pro-Israel nor pro-Palestinian, shows that Obama really is taking things seriously.

Most analysts, though not necessarily any individual off the street, understand the severity of the problems facing America’s new president at home and abroad, and don’t expect miracles—but they do have expectations. Broadly, President Obama needs make the Middle East a priority, work pragmatically and engage all sides to work collectively towards solutions in a number of areas, starting with Gaza, but also including Iran and its nuclear ambition, the American occupation of Iraq, relations with Syria, and support of democratization. These issues are crucially interlinked and good-faith effort in but one area could provide the US with the needed credibility to be taken seriously.